ABSTRACT
In rural areas with high impact of major urban agglomeration housing development deprives the area of its agricultural and forestry functions. The eventuality of spatial conflicts occurrence should be considered when spatial planning decisions are taken. The case study was carried out in the location of Dbe Wielkie, a village situated within the Warsaw agglomeration impact. The study focused on the prediction of the perspective land status and spatial conflicts and based on the previously determined land suitability. The LUCIS model (Land-Use Conflict Identification Strategy Carr, Zwick 2007) of study method was applied. However, certain modifications were introduced. Firstly, selection of model criteria and their evaluation were adapted to the conditions of the lowland Polish village. Moreover, the values of these criteria were easily obtainable from commonly available cartographic sources, e.g. soil agriculture maps and cadastral maps. Secondly, cartographic particularity was increased for the purpose of the study. Thirdly, the analysis of the size of land patches was introduced to avoid the problem of land assignations below acceptable size standard. Several different demographic scenarios and resulting from them needs for housing development areas were assumed. The results of the study were presented in a form of a sequence of maps demonstrating the spatial conflict scale for particular scenarios. The developed analysis model used ArcGIS ESRI map algebra tools.